The ultra-fine wine market has profoundly changed over the last ten years.

A number of factors including internet sales, the immediacy of access to information, generational change, new fashions, a Bordeaux renaissance, a waning cult wine market, the emerging Burgundian summer, a profound shift of international fine wine auction and broking activity to the East, zero tax in Hong Kong, speculative buying by the Chinese, the emergence of international wine funds and opportunistic trading etc. have all altered the fine wine market landscape.

The great wines of Bordeaux and Burgundy have become baubles of the wealthy. Obsession, greed, passion and sheer lust for prestige, power and influence are an undercurrent of the international fine wine market.

Ultra-fine Australian wine has not performed in the way many predicted during the late 1990s. Penfolds Grange, an Australian First Growth, has not kept pace with its Bordeaux counterparts. Few Australian wines have truly made it in the auction markets of Hong Kong, New York and London. Nonetheless there has always been a thriving fine wine market in Australia, supported mainly by domestic buyers and ex-patriots. A growing number of buyers from Hong Kong, Singapore and China are also in the fray. Ultra-fine Australian wine is an exciting genre. Many of the great wines of the Barossa, Coonawarra and Margaret River have beautiful aging potential. Australian Chardonnay is attracting huge interest once again.

Ultimately the Australian fine wine market is a collector's forum, rather than a financial bourse. Some participants may enjoy the benefits of strong price evolution, but most buy at auction because they love wine and the fun of competing for fine and rare wine. The contemporary Australian fine wine market is influenced by a myriad of outside factors rather than a few dominating themes.

The Australian Wine Show system has played a significant role in discovering emerging wines and 'improving the breed' for over seventy years. The exponential growth of ultra-fine wine market prices during the 1990s led to a decreasing exposure of flagship wines at wine shows. Auction buyers have needed to look beyond wine show results to understand the pecking order of ultra-fine Australian wine. Gold medals and trophies still propel primary sales and influence buyer sentiment. However, successful show wines tend to stand out in a crowd, rather than necessarily portraying a beautiful aesthetic.

Langton's Classification of Australian Wine, first published in 1990, rates wines on their track record at auction. Collectors have used this benchmark listing and online auction price data to understand trends in the fine wine market. The Classification is updated every five years to reflect the top performing wines at auction and the sentiment of wine collectors.

The current edition of Langton's Classification of Australian Wine V, released in 2010, comprises 123 ultra-fine Australian wines, each with a reputation for authenticity, consistency and provenance. Revised every five years, the Classification portrays an evolving wine making culture that lies at the forefront of Australian innovation and excellence in the world of fine wine. It also reflects a continuing momentum towards single vineyard wines and regional identity. It maintains a strong emphasis on red wines, particularly labels with renowned cellaring potential.

Langton's Classification of Australian Wine comprises four categories - Exceptional, Outstanding, Excellent and Distinguished.

Exceptional (17 wines)

The most highly sought after and prized 'first-growth' Australian wines on the market.

Outstanding (32 wines)

Benchmark quality wines with a very strong market following.

Excellent (36 wines)

High performing wines of exquisite quality with solid market values and volume of demand.

Distinguished (38 wines)

Fine market staples or emerging classics.

The cult wine scene, which dominated headlines in Australia from 1995 to 2005, has slowly ebbed away. For a while the wine trade and consumers were mesmerized by a genre of new emerging wines discovered by Robert Parker Jr. and to a lesser extent Wine Spectator Magazine. These high-scoring 'Parkerised' wines challenged the entire order of Australian ultra-fine wine. The escalating volume of demand and prices for many of these limited release wines dominated the media. Penfolds Grange and Henschke Hill of Grace, although still achieving solid results, seemed a touch unfashionable!

Australian cult wine is no longer a feature of the fine wine market. After more than a decade, the power of American wine critic, Robert Parker Jr., has partially waned. The market has moved on. The most successful marques, including Chris Ringland Shiraz, Greenock Creek Roennfeldt Road Shiraz and Noon Reserve Shiraz have become modern classics. These wines are now well entrenched in the Australian fine wine market and included in Langton's Classification of Australian Wine.

Although Robert Parker Jr. remains an important influence worldwide, particularly for Bordeaux, his opinions about Australian wine are not followed with the same zeal. Nonetheless many collectors subscribe to www.erobertparker.com, a remarkable resource comprising the opinions of Robert Parker Jr. and a team of experienced wine writers. Robert Parker Jr.'s newsletter The Wine Advocate, which is also available online at www.erobertparker.com, remains a very credible and authoritative resource.

Australian wine writers also influence the market by stumping up and backing emerging wines. James Halliday has been a long-time supporter of ultra-fine Australian wine. If anything his influence is on the ascendancy, although like Robert Parker Jr., he outsources wine writing and opinion for his Australian Wine Companion. Jeremy Oliver's The Australian Wine Annual, which does focus on collectable wines, is a very useful resource. His back vintage scores do provide market guidance to some extent. The latest edition is now available in Chinese. Our own Langton's market reports, vintage reports and winery reviews, edited by Andrew Caillard MW, are written especially for an Australian fine market audience. This is an important primary resource.

There are many national and international publications that support the direction of emerging wines. Australian Gourmet Traveller Wine Magazine, Wine State and the new James Halliday's Wine Companion Magazine are all credible sources of opinion. Wine Spectator (US), Decanter Magazine (UK) and their websites are resources frequently used by wine enthusiasts in Australia. Jancis Robinson's www. jancisrobinson.com is a very engaging and trusted source of opinion. There are of course a myriad of websites and blogs that may influence the behaviour of the market, but ultimately it is very difficult to measure their impact in any meaningful way.

Track record is a very strong market indicator. It takes several years, even decades, to establish a strong and enduring wine marque. Reputation, a compelling narrative, regional character and price evolution are key factors. Sometimes emerging wines falter because of changes in fashion, ownership or perception in quality. There are many examples of very famous Australian wines that have fallen into obscurity over a period of time. Balgownie Estate Cabernet Sauvignon, Virgin Hills, Knights Granite Hills Shiraz, Lindemans Hunter River Burgundy, Redman Cabernet Sauvignon etc. were all auction stars during the 1960s and 1970s. On the other hand it is interesting to see wines like Lindemans St George Cabernet Sauvignon, a stalwart of the 1980s and 1990s, achieving renewed interest in the current market in 2012.

The then cult wine market led to new types of retail businesses during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Now defunct wine brokers, including Heritage Fine Wines, Wine Orb and Australian Wine Index encouraged people to buy Australian wine as an investment asset. Many of these overpriced wines were second or third wines belonging to a suite of established and emerging producers. Sadly many small investors, beguiled by the overstated potential of the market, were left with disastrous wine investments. These perfectly decent wines, but poor assets, are still coming onto the market and are selling at a fraction of their original sale price. Perversely they offer auction buyers great value, but someone has lost their shirt somewhere along the line.

The Australian fine wine market has altered significantly over the last ten years. The restaurant wine scene has become increasingly powerful as the retail market narrows in ownership. Sommeliers have played an important role in discovering and supporting new emerging wines. Crawford River Riesling and Curly Flat Pinot Noir are examples. The traditional wine merchant has all but disappeared with only a few distinguished players left on the scene. Downward price pressure, increasing costs and lack of competitive advantage have made it very difficult to compete with Australia's hugely successful supermarket-owned retail businesses. Nonetheless independents have played an influential role in finding new and exciting wines for the consumer. The Prince Wine Store in Melbourne, Five Ways Cellars in Sydney and East End Cellars and the Edinburgh Hotel in Adelaide are very good examples.

Brokerage businesses, without shop fronts, are also back on the scene with sophisticated call-centres and efficient distribution systems. These businesses tend to champion known brands but occasionally find new exciting wines. These should not be mistaken for the slew of fine brands that have been value-added with enticing headlines, artificially inflated recommended retail prices and misleading narratives. Thankfully most brokers these days do not promote the investment potential of wine. As a rule of thumb guide: 'If it isn't rated by Langton's, it is isn't an ultra-fine wine.'

Although Australia is making the best wine in its history, the selling environment has become extremely difficult. Exports to the USA have fallen considerably as collectors turn their backs on the once-popular high alcohol, high extract jammy dodgers in preference for other styles. Many cult wines or Parker-endorsed wines have lost their cachet in recent times. The spiralling exchange rate, costs of doing business and fashion trends have all impacted on this market. The international market for high quality ultra-fine Australian wine has stalled. While some marques are still enjoying strong demand, others are struggling. The emerging China market and Asia in general represent obvious opportunity. However Australia does have to compete against other countries.

France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, California, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, and even emerging wine exporters like Turkey and Greece etc. are all competing against Australia with strong generic marketing support and weaker currencies. China, also, has a developing wine industry on a scale that is almost unimaginable. The need for food security and a stable source of home grown rice have led to huge government initiatives to convert rice-wine drinkers to grape-wine consumers. The large-scale vine plantings in Ningxia province in Northern China, on the plains where Genghis Khan died, are an indication of things to come in the commercial, price-driven international markets.

Regional definition, traditional styles, track record and family values are themes that will dominate the Australian fine wine market in the future. Exciting new alternative varieties will still take some years to make a meaningful impact among wine collectors. However the potential is there, particularly for classic Italian grape varieties like Sangiovese and Nebbiolo.

In the meantime Barossa, McLaren Vale, Heathcote and Grampians Shiraz, Margaret River and Coonawarra Cabernet Sauvignon, Clare and Eden Valley Riesling, Margaret River and Adelaide Hills Chardonnay will continue to be auction market stalwarts. Australian Pinot Noir, particularly from the Melbourne Dress Circle and Tasmania, has now reached a very exciting point and may start making inroads, although collectors have a tendency to deplete their own cellars. Some producers will start making special one-off wines to capture the imagination and notice of new collectors. Both Torbreck (The Laird) and Penfolds (Bin 620) have released hugely expensive wines. This strategy is interesting and could help Australia gain more prestige abroad in the future, particularly China.

Many of Australia's best wines are now bottled with screw-cap closures. There are few contemporary winemakers that support cork. Cork taint is probably less of an issue these days, but oxidation/ staleness from oxygen ingress, still remains an ongoing problem. Australian winemakers want their wines to reach the consumer in peak condition. These strong feelings are foiled against a small rearguard of producers who believe that cork is an inherent part of a wine's progress to maturity. Clarendon Hills and By Farr for example are two strong proponents for cork. Thankfully the Australian fine wine market can accommodate both points of view.

Natural wines, however, have yet to truly reach the fine wine market. These preservative free wines have become highly fashionable. However most lose their freshness very early and offer little hope for medium or long term cellaring. At the moment their potential is best in wine bars and restaurants where turnover is brisk.

The fine wine market has itself changed irrevocably in Australia. In 2002, Langton's abandoned its live and facsimile auction formats for the brave new world of the internet. Access to buyers and sellers increased exponentially resulting in larger catalogues, higher volumes of bidding, a marked increase in international sales and a greater profile in the national and international market.

Langton's Classification of Australian Wine, a benchmark listing of Australia's most collectable wines, has achieved widespread recognition. It is arguably the most famous wine classification outside Europe. Its influence within Australia and across Asia is especially strong. Many believe that it underpins the ultra-fine Australian wine scene. In Asia, including China, it is one of the very few credible reference points for collectors.

The auction market is a very effective gauge of the emerging wine scene. Wines that generate increasing demand or interest at auction have generally enjoyed success in primary on-trade and off-trade markets. Some emerging wines appear and disappear. A single vintage, like a swallow, does not make a summer. There are many instances of wines that have a great run at auction, and then fall out of favour.

'Emerging wines' have a presence in the auction market but have yet to achieve the consistency of demand required for Langton's Classification. Some are new or relatively new wine marques. Others are old classics that have been previously classified and still attract a solid audience. Many of these wines are great to buy, cellar and drink.

The following list is a comprehensive but by no means exhaustive list of emerging wines.

I have also included a few 'dark horses' that are virtually unknown, but have the potential to emerge as auction staples. This list is to encourage fine wine drinkers to discover and invest in the enjoyment of Australian ultra-fine wine.

Outlook Ratings
	Strong auction market potential
	Moderate auction market potential
	Sluggish auction market potential