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Key News - March 2011 Edition
Guess the vintage

Vintage can never be accurately summarised until the final grape is picked. Last year, the vintage was around 1.6 million tonnes.

Grape-growers in the Riverina held a meeting on Monday 7 February. Brian Simpson, CEO Riverina Wine Grapes Marketing Board (WGMB), said there was ‘simmering tension.’

At this stage it looks as if the Murray Valley has been the hardest hit of the three inland regions. Mark McKenzie, CEO Murray Valley Winegrowers, said he expected losses of 30 percent plus. This figure has now been revised up to 50 percent or more. In dollar terms, that will cost growers around $40 million in farm gate revenue, even against last vintage’s very low returns.

The Riverland region was the least affected. Chris Byrne, Executive Officer Riverland Winegrape Grower's Association. Byrne is also a grape-grower himself, and in speaking about his own grapes he says, ‘with the rain we’ve had, I think yield loss to disease may be offset by berry weight. (An increase of 1 mm in diameter, of a 10mm berry = + 33% berry weight).’

In optimistic mood he adds, ‘The Riverland 2010 harvest was 333.6K tonnes in total. (Wineries 56K, Growers 278K.) I can’t see why it will be much different this year. If anything, I suspect we may grow more.

As is the way of agriculture, one farmer’s disaster is another’s golden opportunity. As Byrne indicated, ‘retired’ patches of vines have come back into production. The only reason for that is the smell of money.

An Adelaide-based broker said there wasn’t as much bulk wine around from the inland regions as had ‘been advertised through the media.’ The logic used was that wineries needed cash flow and so, as the vintage approaches, it’s normal for them to offer wine to brokers as a means of generating that necessary income. There have been few knocks on the door this year, though, with offers of inland wine.

However, according to the broker, when it comes to premium wine, ‘there are copious amounts sitting in tanks across Australia’. He adds, ‘I can go and buy a million litres of, say, McLaren Vale Shiraz 2008 vintage and that would be from only 2-3 suppliers. I’m currently preparing my New Bulk Wine List to go out to buyers around Australia and I would say 99 percent of my list is premium and not from the inland regions’.

At the moment, the price is low. The broker TKR spoke with says he is selling premium wine at $2.20 litre, while less than two years ago that price would have been between $4.00 - $5.00 litre. The wineries of the Margaret River region tout their premium status; however, according to the broker, ‘there are many top named wineries virtually begging me to try and help them move premium wines from Margaret River and the prices have crashed.’

Cynical comment: No matter the region or whatever the reason – flood, fire, disease, hand of God or sabotage – whatever grapes survive in 2011 will be fantastic, wonderful, full of flavour or simply the best ever.

Tight times

Tidewater Funds Management Limited is the Responsible Entity for Cheviot Kirribilly Vineyard Property Trust. Tidewater, along with Cheviot Kirribilly Vineyard Property Limited, has been in discussions with ‘external parties’ about ‘restructuring the Group to provide greater financial stability in the prevailing environment.’

In short, they have raised enough finance to see them through vintage 2011; however, what will happen after is not clear and further discussions will need to be had. The reality is that they may have to close, or sell, some vineyards.

Biggest players

The world's two largest producers of spirits are Diageo and Pernod Ricard, with Diageo tending to claim first spot and Pernod Ricard taking the title of co-leader. It hardly matters; both are large and both have sizeable wine operations, although Diageo is whittling down theirs and Pernod Ricard has gone in for reorganisation and probably has seriously considered exiting the field.

Both have recently revealed their first half results. On comparative performance for the period Pernod Ricard declared sales of A$5,851 million, while Diageo reported turnover of A$8,507 million.

China was the big growth area for Pernod Ricard, possibly the result of getting the China team fired-up by bringing most of them to Australia last year (that little sojourn wasn’t all about Jacobs Creek).

The 14 strategic Spirits and Champagne brands account for 59 percent of total sales (up from 55 percent the previous corresponding period). Eight of the brands achieved double digit growth, lead by Martell Cognac at 32 percent.

As with Diageo, wine got short shift in the report: ‘The four Priority Premium Wine (Jacobs Creek, Bancroft Estate, Campo Viejo, Graffigna ) brands posted volume and sales growth of 3 percent This represented the first return to volume growth since the first half of 2007/08.’

Can we read any good news in that? Just a little. One assumes the 3 percent increase wasn’t divided across all four brands? Therefore, one wonders which did well and which didn’t? It would be good to think that Jacobs Creek was leading the pack, but if TKR had to put money on it then Graffigna is where it would be placed. Growers take note: there could be more trimming the cloth in order to make for a better fit next year.

Diageo has fulfilled speculation and finally parted with £1.3 billion ($2.09 billion) for Turkish spirit producer Mey Içki. Reports suggest that the reasoning behind the deal is to open Turkey to other Diageo products.

Changing Hands

The sale of the Remy Cointreau Champagne brands (Piper-Heidsieck and Charles Heidsieck) has been completed. The new owners are the EPI Group. A very secretive group belonging to the Descours family who are into luxury goods and stores such as J. M. Watson (which makes shoes so expensive most people would be afraid to walk in them). The Descours are not without wine experience as they own Chateau La Verrerie in Provence.

Expanding

Viña Concha y Toro snapping up Fetzer Vineyards and related assets (from Brown-Forman) is an interesting move. The price is put at US$238 million. The question it raises in Australia is how this benchmarks the value of Treasury Wine Estates’ Beringer brand.

In 2000, Fosters acquired Beringer for A$2.6bn (at the time around US$1.5 billion). Brown Forman had acquired Fetzer in 1992 for around US$90 million.

Fetzer and associated brands’ annual case sales are put at 3.1 million (worth US$156 million.) Treasury Wine Estates’ Beringer and Australian brands total around 18 million cases (worth, in the financial year 2010, A$933 million).

The sums are difficult to do without knowing exactly how much Australian wine is involved; however, previous write downs have clearly shown that Beringer is today worth nowhere what was paid for it. When Treasury is floated, will the worth of Beringer be truly reflected?

Roll the dice:

Vok Beverages have announced that they are increasing the prices of the wine brands they distribute under a joint venture agreement with Foster’s. They stated that Queen Adelaide is going to move from the $5 a bottle sector to over $7 a bottle. Good for them – if they can do it. It will be interesting to observe progress; the Queen sells around 250,000 cases a year and Vok say they have conducted taste comparisons where it performs better than other $5 wines. I haven’t tasted the Queen for some time, but I well remember the Chardonnay being of high standard. The real test is whether consumers will spend the extra money, or opt to buy a cleanskin?

Moving up

Discount supermarket group, Aldi, tend to keep a low profile but they are gaining market share. Jason Bowyer from Cheviot Bridge has taken a position as senior buyer and the company is said to be in expansion mode. The down side to Aldi is that it’s greatly into private label product. Not so good for those trying to develop a brand, but there is room in the market for all. The good point is that Aldi just about keeps Coles and Woolworths on their toes and more competition for them will, in the longer term, be good for the industry.






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